Guarded Optimism

This past weekend was the opening of free agent season in the NFL. And, in keeping with feeding the nation's appetite for football satiated, ESPN had full coverage of the "event". One of the more surprising things to come out of the event was the blitzkrieg launched by Browns GM Phil Savage. In fact, the Browns were so active and apparently productive that ESPN analyst Chris Mortensen decided they are fit enough to make a run for the Super Bowl next season. I talked with my dad over the weekend and he says the same sentiment has, expectedly, permeated the Cleveland talk radio scene.

Has reason been abandoned by everyone? Perhaps Senator Obama's message of hope transcends politics in Ohio and is now lifting everyone's sports aspirations. I'm not trying to make the argument that whatever the Browns have done early is terrible and they'll most certainly flop. What I'm saying is that maybe we should take a step back and look at the road ahead and assess the potential pitfalls the team faces next year.

First, the Browns play in the AFC. I'm sorry NFC fans, but your conference is a stone throws away from being the Eastern Conference in basketball. You know every year who is going to make the playoffs, but after that it's chance. And I'm sorry Giants fans, but you guys benefited from that this year and miraculously pulled off the ultimate win. In the AFC, however, the competition is evenly spread out and there are more good teams to contend with. The entire AFC South had a winning record. The AFC North had two 10 win teams and the East had the Patriots and oppressed Bills (who are good but recently have been at the mercy of the Patriots and quarterback controversies). The point is, no matter what schedule you play in the AFC, a 10-6 season is not easily repeated. Especially if a good number of those 10 wins came down to the wire.

Appropriately, the Browns have one of the more difficult schedules in the AFC next season. They've pulled the NFC East next season which includes the Redskins, the Giants, Cowboys, and the Eagles. The Giants are getting hit hard by free agency but they are the champs and have proven that they can win games. The Cowboys will probably win the division again and will again be the NFC favorites next year. The Eagles are the perennial wildcard team that nobody can predict and the Redskins are always one step away from being above average. They also play the AFC South which, as mentioned above, had a winning record throughout. The Colts, Jags, and Titans made the playoffs last year and the Texans have been improving consistently. Then there's the issue of playing the AFC North teams and the second place teams from every other division. When its all said and done, the road to the playoffs is going to be tough - much less to the Super Bowl.

Third, the Browns were so successful last year on the play of unproven stars. Sure Braylon Edwards had 12 TDs and 1200 yards receiving last year. But nobody thought he would be the receiver he became. Next season, defenses will be looking to shut him down. Jamal Lewis also had a great season, but he was injury free and came into the season with a chip on his shoulder. He wanted to prove he wasn't as washed up as it seemed he was. What's to say that his history of injury doesn't haunt him during summer camp? There is no such guarantee. I will say, though, that the offense is greatly helped by the addition of Dante Stallworth. Although his raw receiving ability is questionable and his contribution may be limited, he is a legitimate threat that may take some pressure off Edwards and provide Anderson with another outlet. Speaking of Derek Anderson...

Does one season make a quarterback? Sure he threw 29 touchdown passes, but he also let loose about 20 interceptions. There is no denying that he has the physical assets to become a top flight quarterback. But top flight quarterbacks have the intelligence and poise to compliment their physical stature. Anderson played well against teams like the Patriots and Steelers in mid season. But when the Browns' playoff life was at stake against the Bengals, he completely broke down and threw 3 interceptions; two of which directly lead to the Bengals scoring. Now, this may seem a bit harsh a criticism for a guy who led an upstart team to 10 wins in the AFC, but it isn't without merit. Anderson has the able Brady Quinn at his heels in the depth chart. If he struggles early on and exhibits no ability to pull it together, his leash will be short. And if Romeo Crennel faces another QB controversy, GM Phil Savage will not be so keen to keep him in the director's chair after spending so exorbitantly this past weekend.

Finally, the Browns defense is terrible as of right now. Sure their pass rush has been significantly upgraded and their linebacker corps is quick to the ball, but their secondary is atrocious. And they just traded their best cornerback in Leigh Bodden. The safety position is solid with Sean Jones, who I think is one of the better safeties in the NFL. However the Browns need to find a cornerback to compliment second year player Eric Wright. The only problem is that they've already spent a ton of money on the defensive front and traded away their first 3 April draft picks. So they have to rely on their depth chart stepping up or a late round gem. Both options are risky and hardly ever pay off in the end.

So, yeah, it is safe to say that the 2008 Cleveland Browns are already a better team than the 2007 version. But their schedule is considerably more difficult this year and their offensive weapons (save Kellen Winslow and Joe Jurevicius) are somewhat unproven. Is the talent enough to overcome the increase in degree of difficulty and can the players maintain the level of play from last year? Those are two big variables that lead me to hold off on my opinion for next season. The Browns could very well end up being the team that makes big offseason moves but flops when the games are played.

One thing I do know though: When the 2008 season kicks off, I'll be looking towards the playoffs no matter what I just wrote. Welcome to Cleveland.