The Fourth Quarter and More Bad Predictions

Oh boy. I think I can outsmart the NFL experts and end up sounding like Emmitt Smith. Sure, the NFL experts probably had Dallas and the Jags like I did, but I like to think I can outsmart them, oh well. I can hang my hat on the Falcons. I also have more ammo for next year with worst to first or at least wild card performances by the Dolphins, Ravens, Eagles, and aforementioned Falcons. I had a measly 1 out of 6 playoff participants right in the AFC, and a respectable 4 of 6 playoff participants in the NFC. Here's a breakdown:

AFC EAST
Dolphins 11-5
My Prediction 6-10
Explanation- Who saw the elf from Rudolph turning the Phins around so quickly?

Patriots 11-5
My Prediction 11-5
Explanation- Winner!

Jets 9-7
My Prediction 9-7
Explanation- Winner!

Bills 7-9
My Prediction 10-6
Explanation- Booooooooo! What a homer!

AFC NORTH
Steelers 12-4
My Prediction 7-9
Explanation- Did you know who James Harrison was before this year?

Ravens 11-5
My Prediction 4-12
Explanation- Keep repeating Ray Ray is not on PEDS...

Bengals 4-11-1
My Prediction 6-10
Cut Ocho; Palmer + Rivers return maybe next year?

Browns 4-12
My Prediction 8-8
Explanation- Staph, Bray cries, BQ gets punched, no Cowher...yikes!

AFC SOUTH
Titans 13-3
My Prediction 7-9
Explanation- Obviously my prediction would have been different if I knew I street person Kerry Collins would be QB.

Colts 12-4
My Prediction 8-8
Explanation- My hatred for Peyton is so pure I will continue to pick against the Colts.

Texans 8-8
My Prediction 10-6
Explanation- Nice end, maybe my pick is one year too soon.

Jaguars 5-11
My Prediction 13-3
Explanation- Oops, Good thing Garrard didn't sign a huge contract. Oh he did? Ouch, hoping fan dissatisfaction precipitates a move to LA FU Jacksonville.

AFC WEST
Chargers 8-8
My prediction 11-5
Explanation- Philip Rivers is a cocky bastard, and backed
it up.

Broncos 8-8
My prediction 7-9
Explanation- I was off by one game because Jay Cutler has diabetes.

Raiders 5-11
My prediction 7-9
Explanation- Genuinely feisty at the end of the year.

Chiefs 2-14
My prediction 4-12
Explanation- Tyler Thigpen is a top ten QB...in Fantasy.

NFC EAST
Giants 12-4
My prediction 8-8
Explanation- What an offensive line! Will be tough to beat.

Eagles 9-6-1
My prediction 12-4
Explanation- The one team the Giants don't want to face.

Cowboys 12-4
My prediction 13-3
Explanation- I drank the Hard Knocks kool-aid...they looked so happy.

Redskins 8-8
My prediction 11-5
Explanation- Will Dan Snyder go New York Yankee this off-
season?

NFC NORTH
Vikings 10-6
My prediction 10-6
Explanation- Winner!

Bears 9-7
My prediction 5-11
Explanation- I still don't think Kyle Orton is the answer.

Packers 6-10
My prediction 7-9
Explanation- Packers had a lot of close losses. They will bounce back.

Lions 0-16
My prediction 4-12
Explanation- It's tough looking back on a 4-12 prediction and thinking that I gave the Lions too much credit.

NFC SOUTH
Panthers 12-4
My prediction 7-9
Explanation- I wonder what the percentage of teams that won their fantasy leagues because of DeAngelo Williams.

Falcons 11-5
My prediction 9-7
Explanation- Since 2002 team that has finished last in NFC South has bounced back to make the playoffs the following year.

Buccaneers 9-7
My prediction 8-8
Explanation- Epic collapse. Bucs defense looked OLD.

Saints 8-8
My prediction 8-8
Explanation- Winner (and winner of Bucs merchandise through bet with fool)!

NFC West
Cardinals 9-7
My prediction 10-6
Explanation- It was an ugly 9-7 wasn't it? A lot of blowout losses.

49ers 7-9
My prediction 3-13
Explanation- A different team with Singletary.

Seahawks 4-12
My prediction 9-7
Explanation- Most injury plagued team of 2008.

Rams 2-14
My prediction 3-13
Explanation- Oh so close!

Playoffs
I'm going with the Cardinals to beat the Falcons, Eagles over Vikings, Chargers over Colts, and Ravens over the Dolphins...but as the above displays, what do I know?

Apparently the Run and Shoot doesn't work as well in the snow

Are the Cardinals the worst playoff team in history? I would argue yes, mostly because I don’t feel like digging up any evidence to the contrary. As a Bears fan, I’m especially upset that this disgrace of a team will take the place of someone at least slightly more worthy. Not that the Bears are the most deserving replacement, but I feel confident in saying that the Cardinals are the worst team in the NFC, outside of the rest of the NFC West and the Lions. I mean, the Cardinals haven’t even won a game outside of the crap-tastic NFC West since week SIX! We all know that the Cardinals have a great passing game (except when it snows) but no Arizona running back has managed to surpass even the eager milestone of 40 yards in a single game since week nine! And that was against the Rams! They’ve lost four of the their last five games, so I think it’s safe to assume that whoever earns the five seed in the NFC and has the good fortune of facing Arizona in the playoffs can go ahead and can cancel their plans for the following weekend.

Depending on what happens in tonight’s MNF game, Chicago is inching closer and closer to a surprise playoff berth. They looked dead after getting blown out by Minnesota and falling to 6-6, but with a win tonight at home against Green Bay and next week at Houston, the Bears can lock up the division title if Minnesota loses to the Giants next week. Unfortunately for the Bears, the Giants have already clinched home-field advantage so they may rest a few players. However, never underestimate Minnesota’s ability to choke.

Of course, a few obligatory comments on the Pro Bowl. I know that no one gives a gosh darn about it, but I think it’s worth pointing out that golden boy Matt Ryan did not make the NFC squad, while Eli and his goofy moptop did. Many pundits are throwing Matt Ryan’s name around for NFL MVP (OK, maybe just Peter King) so I think it’s safe to say that if he didn’t make the Pro Bowl, he probably won’t win MVP. A lot of people are getting bent out of shape about Philip Rivers not making the team, but I’m okay with it. Sure, he has great stats, but his team has pretty much sucked. Like or not, the QB has a lot to do with that. It’s only thanks to the Broncos’ own ineptitude that San Diego is still in the playoff race, which I guess raises the question of why Jay Cutler deserves to be in the Pro Bowl more than Rivers. To which I say, why not Chad Pennington? He may not have quite the yards or TD’s of the other two guys, but he has the lowest interception percentage among AFC QBs and helped bring the Dolphins from the brink of relegation to the Arena League to playoff contention. And how crappy is the AFC that Thomas Jones is the starting running back? Remember when the AFC was so good that Fred Taylor could never make the Pro Bowl despite surpassing 1200 yards and 4.5 ypc nearly every season? Those were the days…

I’ve complained about the NFL’s parity in the past, but it’s hard to argue against the excitement it generates at the end of the season. In the AFC, six teams are fighting for the last three spots, and in the NFC five teams are still in contention for the last two slots. Two or three quality teams will almost certainly be left out of the playoffs. As exciting as the race is, I’m pretty sure that there is something that has fans even more juiced. Of course, I’m talking about the Lions pursuit of (im)perfection, which could come to a close this Sunday. I know I would be watching the game - if it wasn’t blacked out, of course.

Extension!

ESPN and local Buffalo Radio are reporting Dick Jauron (see above) has signed a three year extension. Words really can't express my feelings right now. To reward a coach for consistently mismanaging the clock, squandering legitimate talent, and losing close games is beyond comprehension. Now I am not one of the many delusional Buffalonians who start their message board posts with pathetic cries of "I quit being a Bills fan." The People who make such outlandish statements usually have post names like "Beelze4eva," "Iluvbills," "BB2daGrave," and "SchoebelsHUGEsack," well maybe not the last one, but anyway though I am not one of those silly Bills fans I think you can still be critical of your team and love them unconditionally. Do I wish they wouldn't have extended Dick Jauron? Of course, but its now a fact. Always the optimist I have noted that the Bills have locked up last place in the AFC East even if they win out meaning next year's opponents will include the Bengals and the Chiefs/Raiders...we can beat them next year right?

Monday Thoughts
- The Bucs went from possible first round bye to having to fight for their playoff lives in the tough NFC. I have a merchandise bet with a buddy from high school. If the Bucs finish with a better record than the New Orleans Saints then I receive a Bucs jersey of his choice. If the Saints beat out the Bucs he gets a Saints jersey. With the Saints loss I clinched at least a tie, its kind of a shame though because I really wanted to see the look on his face when I gave him an authentic black Aaron Brooks Saints jersey.

- The Patriots legitimately could finish 11-5 and miss the playoffs. The Pats with wins against the Cards and Bills would finish 11-5, but would need help from the Ravens and Jets/Dolphins who all hold tiebreakers over the Pats (all based on AFC Conference record).

- The NFL's "indisputable evidence" standard needs to be more clearly defined. Obviously there was not "indisputable" evidence that Santonio Holmes was in the end zone last night during the Steelers/Ravens game. Referees should be instructed to stick with the call on the field, the human call, when a play is inconclusive.

- I would just like to note that both of my fantasy football teams are playing in the Fantasy Super Bowl this year. People laughed at me for selecting Chris Johnson in around the sixth round. I am laughing now. It also helps to have Andre Johnson and Michael Turner playing absolutely brolick. I do fear that Michael Turner is getting too many carries and will end up like Larry Johnson.

- I simply cannot wait to pick up my Marshall's JP Losman jersey.

- The New York Giants peaked too early. I always seem to be doubting the Giants and then they end up proving me wrong, but its entirely possible for the Giants to lose to the Panthers and Vikings and end up being the NFC's 4 seed. A Panthers win next week gives them homefield. Coupled with a Vikings win next week, the Giants and Vikings would be playing for a bye week on the season's final week.

Terrible....

Why ruin a good thing? I really hate the Red Sox.

Speaking of Cole Hamels....

The Phillies stud workhorse just recently told the world what everyone was thinking but didn't have the balls to say (except me, I said it last February because I'm awesome). The Mets are the most expensive choke artists this side of the 2004 Yankees.

Good job Cole. Here's to Philly not squandering a double digit lead in games in September.

Also, I'm going to sleep in order to more effectively rant about Eric Devendorf's dumb ass tomorrow.....fucking dick.

Welcome to the City of Brotherly Love....

As the winter meetings wind down in Vegas, I want to take this opportunity to introduce anyone who is reading to this the newest member of the Philadelphia Phillies. I know I shouldn't be complaining since the Phillies won the World Series, but really that feeling only lasted for a few days. After about a week, I was back to cursing out McNabb and Andy Reid, as well as wondering why the Sixers spent so much money on two bum "superstars" like Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand.

As the 2009 season begins, I notice every team in the NL East is making an effort to get better. The Braves have already traded for Javier Vazquez. The Mets have signed K-Rod and traded for Putz, which the team hopes will enable Jerry Manuel to shorten the game. Even the Nationals have made an offer to Textiera (which he'll never accept). Everyone is trying to get better.

What have the Phillies done you ask? Well lets see. They have declined arbitration to Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer. Chase Utley has had hip surgery that will likely keep him out until June. They have still not resigned All World MVP Cole Hamels (he still only makes 400K, which was much less than the 900K they paid to So Taguchi last season). So far they have made two meaningless trades. They swapped bust prospects with the Rangers and now have traded a 26 year old catcher to the Pirates for castoff Ronny Paulino. Welcome to the team Ronny. You'll likely be booed by Sunday.

The NFL Season is Over

Surprisingly, the NFL season didn't end about 8 weeks ago for me and other Cleveland fans. However, with the devastating loss to the Titans, the NFL holds nothing for me anymore. The main reason I kept up with the NFL for this long is because I had one fantasy team in the playoffs. Now since that's over...well fuck the 2008 season. Anwyay, the only victory for the Browns this season was the completely perplexing throttling of their toughest opponent, the New York Giants. There is a slight chance I'll watch this Monday Night's matchup with the mediocre Eagles and the final Steelers game. But if the Cavs are on, fuck that.

So what do the Browns do this offseason? Well, firing fat fuck Romeo is probably the last move Savage should do before getting canned by Lerner. At least he can go out on a high note. Although, I think Savage gets a hard time from the fans, myself included, for how he's handled the Browns in his tenure. His drafting has been pretty superb with jems such as Brady Quinn, Josh Cribbs, D'Qwell Jackson, and Kamerion Wimbely. I attribute the shittiness of the Browns to poor coaching and, somewhat less, to injuries. Injuries are moot because every team has to deal with them. However, losing two straight games after leading by 13+ at the half is squarely put on the shoulders of atrocious coaching.

Romeo Crennell has done an awful job this year with clock management, personell management, and general gameplan. This was a team that won 10 games last year and had one of the top offenses in the league! In 2008, they couldn't score a TD if their lives depended on it. Who loses 3 games in one season by the score of 10-6. Its absolutely unbelievable.

My hope is that Lerner goes out of his way to get Bill Cowher to coach. I know this is a longshot but give him money, operations control, ANYTHING to get that man on the Cleveland sidelines. We need someone to instill discipline and a culture of winning on this Browns team. Sure Schottenheimer can get the wins, but whats the point of winning 12 games and then losing in the playoffs for no apparent reason. He'd be a good short term fix, but what the Browns need is a sense of stability and continuity. They've gone through a revolving door of coaches since their inception 10 years ago. I'm sure that doesn't help with the inherent identity crisis that comes with being an expansion team.

C.C. Sabathia.

I'll be doing another more extensive Hot Stove piece during the holidays when the GM meetings are over and the deals that are in the works are either confirmed or quashed. For now, I'll talk about CC's decision to go with the Yankees. From what I understand, Sabathia took his time making the decision and I'm sure that it wasn't a foregone conclusion. Sources close to Sabathia have repeatedly stated that he wanted to play on the west coast near his family. Rumor has it that if the Dodgers or Giants made an offer anywhere in the proximity of the Yankees' offer, he would have taken it.

I'm disappointed in CC's decision because it forces me to root against him. I've had my ups and down with the pitcher since he came up through the Indians farm system but he was always one of my favorite players on the Indians. I wanted him to win a World Series, whether with the Tribe or longshot Brewers last year. I could even stomach a Dodger win if it meant Sabathia got the ring (the Giants are more dubious). However, since he plays on the Yankees, there is no way that I'll root for that to happen now. I hope Cliff Lee and the Indians spoil the Yanks home opener next year. From then on, Sabathia will become an uneasy enemy to me.

The other reason I'm disappointed with CC's decision is that it really doesn't make much sense. Logic would dictate that it was the best offer because it could potentially pay $160 million and has a player option on the last 3 years of the contract. That's good for Sabathia but a terrible decision by the Yanks. If Sabathia flops in New York, nobody would pick up that contract and he'd be able to pick up his own option and just eat salary space while being another mediocre starting pitcher. Obviously the Yankees thought very highly of him to offer that arrangement. Where the agreement doesn't make sense is the location. Why would Sabathia relocate to the AL East to a team that is aging and is probably past its prime?

The Yankees aren't a lock anymore to make the playoffs. Sure they'll have a great rotation if they sign Burnett and Joba lives up to his potential, but the chemistry on the team is obviously not there. They really fell apart last season due to early injuries and an epic failure on the part of their young players. The front office continually trades the homegrown talent for veterans that bring their own agenda and personality to a clubhouse already divided in a cold war between Jeter and A-Rod. Their outfield is weak by AL standards and their middle infield is deficient on defense. Robinson Cano is turning into a one season wonder. It seems like the Yankees need to blow up and reboot, but the culture in New York obviously won't let that happen.

Plus, they aren't even the best team in the East. That battle is going to be between the Red Sox and Rays for a couple of seasons to come. The Rays are young and dynamic. They have everything the Yankees don't in terms of defense, chemistry, and young blood. They have all that without the drama of being in New York. Sabathia probably won't be affected by any of this though. He thrives on pressure and plays well when under the gun. I'm confident that he'll struggle early with the Yanks but get his bearings straight quickly and play as well as they need him to down the stretch. It just boggles my mind why he wouldn't stay in the NL where he would dominate and win Cy Young awards for years to come.

Maybe that's why he's a professional athlete and I'm not.

The Cavs are Good.

This obviously comes with a caveat because I'm from Cleveland. While the Cavs have set an NBA record by winning 9 games by 12+ points, they came against opponents who are under .500 on the season. I think only one or two of those teams were above .500 during that stretch. However, their style of play has altered drastically this season with the addition of Mo Williams on the team.

A true point guard makes the game much easier for the rest of the team. The Cavs have the best offense, statistically in the NBA, and the best defense in terms of points allowed and field goal percentage allowed. Lebron hasn't been playing the 4th quarter during the blowouts so he'll be fresher to play against tougher opponents deeper into the season. The bench is strong with Daniel Gibson averaging 10 ppg and surprising rookie JJ Hickson providing energy and defense. Delonte West is definitely better as an off guard and has played incredibly well to start the season in terms of shooting and defense. Since the burden of running the point is now on Mo Williams, he gets to expend more energy on defense shutting down the other team's perimeter threat.

If the Cavs can keep this pace, or even come close to it, for the rest of the season, they'll be a tough out in the playoffs. I think they legitimately have a chance at beating the Celtics in the playoffs this year and winning the title. I'm not calling it by any means, but this is the strongest Cavs team that I have seen in the Lebron era, by far. Obviously its too early to call anything about 20 games into the season but its enough of a sample space to make a fair assessment of a team's chances.

I'm Back........................

2009 Rose Bowl Champions!

The Third Quarter

AFC EAST
Jets 8-4 [9-7]
Patriots 7-5 [11-5]
Dolphins 7-5 [6-10]
Bills 6-6 [10-6]

If you notice the above picture the Bills retro logo actually has a buffalo penis. The logo brazenly exposes a fat buffalo cock. Unfortunately, the real Buffalo Bills have no balls. Dick Jauron may be an ivy leaguer. He really may be dead though. Not only does he look like a skeleton, but he shows no emotion, cannot manage time-outs, and insists on allowing offensive coordinator Turk Schonert to run when he should pass, and pass when he should run. I can't believe how this season has turned out, and even a hopeful fan like me is having a hard time looking forward to the draft next year. As for the rest of the division, I hate them all, and do not want to talk about them.


AFC NORTH
Steelers 9-3 [7-9]
Ravens 8-4 [4-12]
Browns 4-8 [8-8]
Bengals 1-10-1 [6-10]

See that Browns retro logo? That guy is smiling, but he is obviously infected with staph. As were my predictions for this division. I really had no idea how good the Steelers defense was. I also would have never guessed that Joe Flacco would be as good as he is. Guys like Terrell Suggs who openly lobbied for Troy Smith are hopefully apologizing to Flacco. It should be interesting to see what happens in Cleveland though, this division suddenly gets much more interesting next year if Bill Cowher shows up in Cleveland.

AFC SOUTH
Titans 11-1 [7-9]
Colts 8-4 [8-8]
Texans 5-7 [10-6]
Jaguars 4-8 [13-3]

The Colts seriously are not good. They should legitimately be 4-8. They should have lost both Texans games (Blast you Sage Rosenfels!), the Vikings game, and even the Browns game. I have to give the Colts credit though for winning these games that they should not be winning. It is the sign of superior coaching and a team that just knows how to win. That may sound cliche, but it is absolutely true. Teams new to winning often can't get over the hump because you really do need to learn how to win. That is why if the Colts will be an extremely tough out in the playoffs (hopefully they don't make it).

AFC WEST
Broncos 7-5 [7-9]
Chargers 4-8 [11-5]
Raiders 3-9 [7-9]
Chiefs 2-10 [4-12]

That's Tom Cable to the right. Hmmm...interesting right? What a horrible division. I don't care that the Broncos beat the Jets their defense is horrible. Any team that gets blown out by that guy ---> does not deserve to make the playoffs. Ever. The Chargers, along with the Jags are shocking failures. Was Shawn "I love steroids" Merriman really that valuable?

PLAYOFF TEAMS: If the playoffs started today I would hit on ZERO, yes that's right ZERO out of six. I thought I was so much better than those assholes on ESPN, but I'm sure they have at least one.

NFC EAST
Giants 11-1 [8-8]
Cowboys 8-4 [12-4]
Redskins 7-5 [11-5]
Eagles 6-5-1 [12-4]

A good division to be sure, but obviously not as good as I thought they would be. The NFC South has turned out to be the best division. The Cowboys are an interesting team to watch in the final quarter as they really can afford to lose only one game the rest of the season if they plan on making the playoffs.

NFC NORTH
Vikings 7-5 [10-6]
Bears 6-6 [5-11]
Packers 5-7 [7-9]
Lions 0-12 [4-12]

Poor Detroit Lions fans. The closest the Lions are going to get to the Super Bowl is old school Tecmo with Barry Sanders, or if you cheat on Madden. This division is still very much up for grabs with the NFL announcing Kevin and Pat Williams' suspensions today. Though the top three teams are mediocre it should still make for some compelling games.

NFC SOUTH
Buccaneers 9-3 [8-8]
Panthers 9-3 [7-9]
Falcons 8-4 [9-7]
Saints 6-6 [8-8]

The NFC South looks like the best division in football. ESPN and the rest of the mainstream media still loves the NFC East, but all the NFC South teams are tough. The Panthers win close games, the Bucs are led by a core of old guys with some youngsters, and hot cheerleaders, the Falcons have the rookie QB and are playing beyond all expectations, and the Saints have a puncher's chance in every game they play with an awesome offense. I obviously did not see this division playing so well. I've definitely become a fan though and would be overjoyed to see three NFC South teams make the playoffs, especially if it means that the Cowboys don't make it.

NFC WEST
Cardinals 7-5 [10-6]
49ers 4-8 [3-13]
Seahawks 2-10 [9-7]
Rams 2-10 [3-13]

I don't have much to say about the NFC West. The Cardinals look good one week, and bad the next. The Seahawks have been decimated by injuries no one could have seen coming. Though Mike Holmgren looks like a walrus he deserved a better final season in Seattle than this.

NFC PLAYOFFS- If the playoffs started today I would hit 3 of 6, that's not too shabby, and I will hang my hat on the Falcons pick.