NL East Preview

Apparently I am the National League expert around here. That’s probably because I hate the DH and love small-ball. OK, not really. I’m just a Braves fan, so you can make your own assumptions about that.

SO, as a Braves fan, it makes sense for me to the start in NL East. As they say, better late than never. So here goes…

As anyone who knows anything about baseball can tell you, the Mets have out-spent nearly everyone over the past two years and come up one game short of the playoffs in both years. They are hoping the addition of K-Rod will get them a few extra wins and finally push them into the playoffs. The signing of Gary Sheffield could also help, to a lesser extent. The Mets are clearly an offensively talented team, but outside of Johan Santana they don’t really have any reliable pitching. Mike Pelfrey and John Maine are talented young pitchers, but also inconsistent. Livan Hernandez is a reliable workhorse but he hasn’t finished a season with an ERA under 4.50 since 2005.

The defending champion Phillies are a solid team that caught fire at the right time last year. It is hard for any team to defend a title and I don’t expect the Phillies to repeat as World Series Champs this year. However, that doesn’t mean they still can’t win the East. Here are Philadelphia’s win totals over the last six years: 86, 86, 88, 85, 89, 92. Pretty consistent, if you ask me. They may have over-achieved a little bit last season, so I expect them to drop back down into the high 80’s. Raul Ibañez is a solid addition and probably an improvement over Pat Burrell. If Ryan Howard can keep his average closer to .300 than .250, the Phils offense could be even more potent than last year. Their pitching hasn’t changed too much, other than the addition of Chan Ho Park as a fifth starter. However, with injury questions surrounding Cole Hamels, reliability issues surrounding Joe Blanton, and the fact that Jamie Moyer is about 75 years old, the pitching staff certainly has some risk.

I had high hopes for Atlanta this year, especially considering the inordinate amount of tough-luck losses last year, but it seems that perhaps the Braves are just another .500 team. After starting hot this season (5-1, including two wins at Philly) the Braves proceeded to lose six of their next seven, mostly against Washington and Pittsburgh. Atlanta fields a team of talented young (but also un-interesting) players like Casey Kotchman, Jordan Schafer and Kelly Johnson. I’d be willing to bet that only die-hard fantasy players have heard of all those guys. The pitching staff is solid, if unspectacular, and the additions of Javier Vazquez and Derek Lowe certainly shore up last year’s patchwork rotation. Newly-signed Japanese player Kenshin Kawakami should eat up some innings, but most are not expecting him to dominate. Youngster Jair Jurrjens has great stuff and could end up being the best pitcher out of the group. Atlanta should improve on last year’s relatively dreadful 72-90 finish, but expecting a division title is probably out of the question.

What’s the deal with the Marlins? Are they actually good this year? They currently have the best record in baseball at 11-4. The truth is, the Marlins have quietly been a solid team for the last several years. With everyone usually focusing on the Mets, Phillies, and Braves, the Marlins usually get ignored. They haven’t finished better than third since 2003 (when they won the World Series) but have finished with 83 or 84 wins in three of the five seasons since, including last season. Florida has two great young talents in Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla (with fans hoping that Cameron Maybin soon joins that level of distinction) but the rest of the roster is probably only recognized by family members. Their pitching is also young (and inexperienced) but clearly talented. Ricky Nolasco looks like the real deal, with fellow youngsters Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez also showing promise.

The Nationals suck. That’s all there is to it. As expected, they currently have the worst record in baseball and should continue to maintain that level of ineptitude. According to their depth chart, third basemen Ryan Zimmerman is currently the fifth starter in the pitching rotation. While I’m sure it’s a typo, I wouldn’t really be that surprised if it wasn't. (Update: Typo has been fixed. Apparently Jordan Zimmerman is the fifth starter)

Finish:
1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Marlins
4. Braves
5. --vacated--
30. Nationals

If I was more of a risk-taker (like my associate) I would predict the Marlins to win the division, but honestly, at this point it’s a pretty big risk to pick the Mets to win anything. It’s pretty hard to swing a bat and throw strikes when your hands are permanently wrapped around your throat.