The First Quarter

So after four weeks I am more perplexed by the NFL than ever. Without Tom Brady and Peyton Manning (I don't recognize the current Colts quarterback as the true Peyton Manning) the NFL is wide open. No team has truly separated themselves, and when the Chiefs beat the Broncos, Redskins beat the Cowboys, and Jets put up 50 plus points after getting rocked by San Diego the old adage that on any given Sunday any team can beat another has never been more true.

AFC EAST

Happily, I believe the Bills are for real. Pundits love to point out that the Bills' opponents have won four games thus far this season. However, a team that experts love, the Titans, have played three of their four games at home, and their opponents have won an aggregate of three games this season. I'm not saying the Titans are bad, but I'm not sold just yet.

The Bills are for real, not only because they are a pretty good team, but because their schedule dictates that they will be at worst 10-6. The Bills still get to play the Cardinals, 49ers, Chiefs, Jets twice, Dolphins twice, Patriots twice, Chargers, Browns, and Broncos. Considering they only have to go .500 to finish 10-6 they will be tough to keep out of the playoffs, and have a legitimate shot at finishing much much better.

As for the rest of the AFC east, a Wild Card team will come out of the AFC East. The second game between the Jets and Patriots will be huge.

AFC NORTH

This division is definitely still up for grabs. The Steelers have one running back on their roster right now and still have one of the roughest schedules ever. The good news for the Steelers, is though the Ravens are frisky, no other team in the division looks to challenge them. I still have some faith in the Browns, but they need to insert Brady Quinn as quarterback ASAP. The NFL has officially figured out Derrick Anderson. Quinn could be just the shot of adrenaline that the Browns need to get back into contention.

AFC SOUTH

My 10-6 Texans prediction looks pretty bad now, but the Texans have exclusively played on the road. They play exclusively in Houston for the next month and could string some wins together. Andre Johnson, who is killing my fantasy teams, is better than this. The Texans may not reach my 10-6 predicted mark, but they are better than their current record. My Colts prediction is looking pretty solid though. Granted, when Peyton Manning comes back they might get things back together, but by that time things might be too late.

AFC WEST

I feel bad for Lane Kiffin. The Raiders are legitimately a couple of plays away from 3-1. Perhaps the firing will bring some stability to the organization, but it was Ryan's defensive unit that collapsed two weeks in a row in the fourth quarter against the Bills and Chargers, not Kiffin's offense. The Chargers are difficult to figure out. They are much more consistent than I thought they would be, but they have the talent to beat any team. I hate the Broncos, I hate the way they play, or refuse to play defense. That kind of nonsense catches up to teams, and hopefully it will the Broncos.

NFC EAST

Sure I predicted that three teams from the NFC East would make the playoffs, but the one team I thought wouldn't make it because of a Super Bowl hangover is the only undefeated team in the NFC. That stat, however, is a little misleading. The Giants beat a Redskins team that was much different than the team that upended the Cowboys, the Bengals, and the Rams. Nothing exactly to write home about. Its still a long season for the G-Men. The Cowboys should be undefeated. The talent the Cowboys have is borderline ridiculous, and when that talent does not translate to wins, as it did against the Redskins then coaching is to blame. I know Tony Romo has a pass play and a run play to choose from every time he goes under center, but it was inexcusable for the Cowboys to abandon the running game. Especially when their best offensive player is Marion Barber, not Terrell Owens.

NFC NORTH

The big surprise here is the Bears are much better than I thought they would be. Kyle Orton hasn't been that bad, and the Bears defense is still one of the best in the league. The Vikings may have started slow, but I still think they can take the division, especially where the Lions just recently rejoined the league after the firing of Matt Millen (check this hilarious song out http://www.heavy.com/video/58983), and Aaron Rodgers seems like he might be coming back down to earth a little bit.

NFC SOUTH

The NFC South realignment streak of last to first may finally come to an end. The Bucs defense has been revitalized and Brian Griese has been solid. The Falcons have been better than advertised though. By beating the Lions and the Chiefs they have thus far displayed that they are the best of the crappy teams.

NFC WEST

The worst division of all time might get a little better with the return of Deion Branch and eventually Bobby Engram to the Seahawks. The winner in this division might finish 7-9. Explaining to the fans of the team that finishes last in the NFC East, with undoubtedly a better record than the NFC West's division winner, that they are not in the playoffs will be difficult.

What I Learned This Past Weekend...

I am a baseball genius.

Ok, not quite. However, I did predict that the Rays would win the East and the Red Sox would take the wild card. That more than counters the blatant homerism of my Indians pick (however they ended the season at .500 and give me hope for next year). Also in my favor was the, now annual, Phillies NL East championship at the expense of the Mets. And the Brewers made the playoffs. So, all in all, I know my baseball.

Speaking of which, I'd like to congratulate the New York Mets for another great late season meltdown. It is incredible how this can happen to one team two years in a row. Last year it could be excused by claiming that the Mets were young and inexperienced in those situations. That argument barely holds any water because of the vetern presence the Mets have. This year, there is really no excuse.

The team added Cy Young pitcher Johan Santana (who, by the way, pitched a hell of a game to keep the Mets in the race this past weekend) but still ended up in the same place as last year. The only logical conclusion is that the team is filled with a bunch of talented players who don't know how to win. There is a losing culture on the Mets and the only ways to relieve that is to 1) get a manager with some balls and 2) somehow find a back end to that bullpen.

And what another exciting finish to the season. Last year we had the Rockies win a ridiculous amount of games in September and August to force a playoff and win the division. This year we have the White Sox and Twins tied at the top of the AL Central. The White Sox play the Tiggies in a makeup game tonight and, if they win, they get to play the Twins tomorrow in a one game playoff. Exciting stuff!

The Browns are fucked.

The Browns beat the Bengals yesterday in, what will probably be, the shittiest game of the season. It was terribly executed by both teams and the Bengals probably would have won if Carson Palmer were playing. But those points are besides the point. This game was the worst case scenario for the Browns because Derek Anderson stayed in the game and the won. He did just enough to secure his starting job for another week but really didn't allay any fears of his shitiness. His accuracy was terrible, threw an interception, and only managed to lead the team to 20 points on one of the worst defenses in the league. Romeo kept giving him chances to succeed when any other coach (ahem, Bill Cowher) would probably have yanked his ass after the first half in favor of Brady Quinn.

Lets face it, Derek Anderson is a bust. He fell apart in the last few games of the season when teams started paying attention to the Browns and figured out that he stares down receivers and has terrible throwing accuracy. But now he played just well enough to guarantee shittiness for another two weeks. It might have been better if he completely tanked and Quinn was put in before the bye week so he could have extra prep time and snaps before the Giants lay a beating on the Browns in two Mondays. But now Anderson will get eaten up by the Giants and Romeo will be forced to play Quinn without the benefit of a bye week and just in time to get gang raped by the Giants defensive line. Not to mention that the schedule from now on is dead man walking.

Like I said, fucked.

Sarah Palin is about 1/10 as smart as I had initially projected.

I apologize for having to imbue this sports blog with politics, but this is just too good. If anyone can read this excerpt from her interview with Katie Couric and understand what the fuck this lady is saying, you are either 1) way smarter than me or 2) paradoxically, just as retarded as Governor Palin:

COURIC: Why isn't it better, Governor Palin, to spend $700 billion helping middle-class families who are struggling with health care, housing, gas and groceries; allow them to spend more and put more money into the economy instead of helping these big financial institutions that played a role in creating this mess?

PALIN: That's why I say I, like every American I'm speaking with, were ill about this position that we have been put in where it is the taxpayers looking to bail out. But ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health-care reform that is needed to help shore up our economy, helping the—it's got to be all about job creation, too, shoring up our economy and putting it back on the right track. So health-care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions and tax relief for Americans. And trade, we've got to see trade as opportunity, not as a competitive, scary thing. But one in five jobs being created in the trade sector today, we've got to look at that as more opportunity. All those things under the umbrella of job creation. This bailout is a part of that.

I Can Deal If My Team Sucks

But, for the love of existence, let my teams be smart.  I absolutely cannot deal with the fact that the Cleveland Browns of 2008 are possibly the worst coached and dumbest team to ever put on uniforms.  Granted, it  has only been two weeks and they played two pretty good teams.  And these excuses would probably hold water if the team lacked any talent whatsoever.  However, they have talent.  The think they are lacking is brains.

Contrary to popular belief, and, well, how the Browns are playing, a lot of thought goes into playing football.  The teams watch film sessions and coaches try to dissect their upcoming opponents in order to gain any sort of advantage.  Apparently the Browns missed that memo. Every possession begins with running the ball off tackle with Jamal Lewis.  That wouldn't be a a bad idea if you were the 2002 Baltimore Ravens.  But seriously, how about a fucking pass once in awhile on first down.  You know, to keep the defense on its toes.  Seriously, the Steelers pretty much bought Polamalu into the box every first down to take down Lewis.  Horrible.

I mean seriously, this was a must win game.  Now the Browns are down by 2 games to the Steelers in the division and have lost the tiebreaker with a home loss.  Great way to start the season when you have one of the tougher schedules in the league.  What really irks me is that about two players showed up on Monday night: Kellen Winslow and Shaun Rogers.  The offensive line did pretty well too, but who gives them credit ever?  Everyone else just sat around and expected to win, or something.  The last time I checked, you have to try to win games in the NFL.  Not just expect winning to happen because you are an overhyped team with way too many prime time games.

And how about that Romeo Crennell?  His clock management was incredible.  Not only did he mess up the end of the second half with a chance to score, he burned three timeouts in the fourth quarter after going for a field goal while down by 7 with 3 minutes to go.  Hey dickhead, you are playing your divisional rival in a must win game.  You don't go for a fucking field goal down by 7 when you are on their 25 yard line.  Besides showing a complete lack of balls, the Browns displayed a softness that doesn't belong in the AFC North.  What are we, the Bengals?

One last thing.  Before Romeo called for the field goal on 4th down, he ran the ball TWICE on first and second down.  This after moving the ball through the air with no resistance from the Pittsburgh secondary.  Way to play to win Romeo.  If you couldn't count, a field goal doesn't do much for you because you were still down by 4 with 3 minutes to go in the game.  

If Romeo went for the 1st down on 4th, whats the worst that could have happened?  The Steelers would have gained possession at their 25 and the Browns would have had 3 timeouts.  This is enough time to play defense and get back into the red zone to give yourself a chance to score.  Instead we kicked a USELESS field goal and got the ball back with 30 seconds left and no timeouts.  Great job dickheads.

2008 NFL Predictions

Last year at this time I assailed the safe predicting national press pundits for their ridiculous faith in last year's results. The fact is, the only real consistent thing about the NFL is change. Sure, teams like the Colts and Patriots have been on an impressive run in playoff appearances, but they are certainly the aberration. My favorite stats regarding the NFL schedule from 2002-2007:

- An average of three teams that finished last place the previous year will make the playoffs. Last year there were only two, the Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Buccaneeers. The Cleveland Browns were very close, finishing 10-6, but being edged out by the Titans.

This stat is constantly overlooked. ESPN recently had their experts predict the season with nary a last place team being predicted for the playoffs.

So here is how I see it:

AFC EAST
*Patriots 11-5
*Bills 10-6
Jets 9-7
Dolphins 6-10

- The Jets and Bills could really be flip flopped and their two games are going to be huge in the AFC playoff race. I see the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins win totals leaping this year not only because of pre-season acquisitions by all three clubs, but the drastic change in schedule. Last season all three teams got worked by the NFC East. This year their four NFC games are against the much more palatable NFC West.

AFC NORTH
*Browns 8-8
Steelers 7-9
Bengals 6-10
Ravents 4-12

The Browns and Steelers could really switch spots, but the Bengals and Ravens really have no hope. The Bengals will definitley be fun to watch, but I don't see them winning more 38-35 games than they lose.

AFC SOUTH
*Jaguars 12-4
*Texans 10-6
Colts 8-8
Titans 7-9

I see the Colts reign as AFC South champs coming to an end. Its not just about Peyton's possible bum knee, but the ability of the other teams in the AFC South to catch up with the Colts. All three teams are capable of splitting with the Colts as they have created their roster to counteract the Colts attack.

AFC WEST
* Chargers 11-5
Raiders 7-9
Broncos 7-9
Chiefs 4-12

The Chargers are still too good for this division. I do see the Raiders making improvement.

NFC EAST
*Cowboys 12-4
*Redskins 11-5
* Eagles 10-6
Giants 8-8

The best division in football no doubt about it. I feel bad calling out the Super Bowl champions as not making the playoffs, but I think the Giants defense has just been decimated. Half the starters from last year's amazing unit are gone.

NFC NORTH
*Vikings 10-6
Packers 7-9
Bears 5-11
Lions 4-12

The Vikings remind me a lot of the Ravens from their defensive runs BUT with Adrian Peterson. If Peterson can stay healthy and Jackson does not lose games for them then the Vikings could finish with the best record on football. I am doubtful that both of those things will happen, but still see the Vikes as the best team in the division.

NFC South
* Falcons 9-7
Buccaneers 8-8
Saints 8-8
Panthers 7-9

My favorite statistical stat since the realignment: The last place team from the previous year finishes first place the following season in the NFC South. It was extremely difficult to crunch the numbers in favor of the Falcons, but who am I to argue with such an impressive pattern. Plus, its not like the rest of the NFC South is world beaters. Who knows, maybe Matt Ryan will blow up, and I do like Michael Turner.

NFC West
* Cardinals 10-6
Seahawks 9-7
Rams 3-13
49ers 3-13

Every year people pick the Cardinals to usurp NFC West power over the Seahawks, and I will fall into that trap again this year. The Cards just have too many weapons, especially being helmed by Kurt Warner. Plus the defense isn't that bad either. The Seahawks on the other hand, are dealing with excessive injuries, Mike Holmgren's incoming retirement, and no real running back.

So that makes 7 new playoff teams by my count. Looking forward to Thursday.