2008 NFL Predictions

Last year at this time I assailed the safe predicting national press pundits for their ridiculous faith in last year's results. The fact is, the only real consistent thing about the NFL is change. Sure, teams like the Colts and Patriots have been on an impressive run in playoff appearances, but they are certainly the aberration. My favorite stats regarding the NFL schedule from 2002-2007:

- An average of three teams that finished last place the previous year will make the playoffs. Last year there were only two, the Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Buccaneeers. The Cleveland Browns were very close, finishing 10-6, but being edged out by the Titans.

This stat is constantly overlooked. ESPN recently had their experts predict the season with nary a last place team being predicted for the playoffs.

So here is how I see it:

AFC EAST
*Patriots 11-5
*Bills 10-6
Jets 9-7
Dolphins 6-10

- The Jets and Bills could really be flip flopped and their two games are going to be huge in the AFC playoff race. I see the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins win totals leaping this year not only because of pre-season acquisitions by all three clubs, but the drastic change in schedule. Last season all three teams got worked by the NFC East. This year their four NFC games are against the much more palatable NFC West.

AFC NORTH
*Browns 8-8
Steelers 7-9
Bengals 6-10
Ravents 4-12

The Browns and Steelers could really switch spots, but the Bengals and Ravens really have no hope. The Bengals will definitley be fun to watch, but I don't see them winning more 38-35 games than they lose.

AFC SOUTH
*Jaguars 12-4
*Texans 10-6
Colts 8-8
Titans 7-9

I see the Colts reign as AFC South champs coming to an end. Its not just about Peyton's possible bum knee, but the ability of the other teams in the AFC South to catch up with the Colts. All three teams are capable of splitting with the Colts as they have created their roster to counteract the Colts attack.

AFC WEST
* Chargers 11-5
Raiders 7-9
Broncos 7-9
Chiefs 4-12

The Chargers are still too good for this division. I do see the Raiders making improvement.

NFC EAST
*Cowboys 12-4
*Redskins 11-5
* Eagles 10-6
Giants 8-8

The best division in football no doubt about it. I feel bad calling out the Super Bowl champions as not making the playoffs, but I think the Giants defense has just been decimated. Half the starters from last year's amazing unit are gone.

NFC NORTH
*Vikings 10-6
Packers 7-9
Bears 5-11
Lions 4-12

The Vikings remind me a lot of the Ravens from their defensive runs BUT with Adrian Peterson. If Peterson can stay healthy and Jackson does not lose games for them then the Vikings could finish with the best record on football. I am doubtful that both of those things will happen, but still see the Vikes as the best team in the division.

NFC South
* Falcons 9-7
Buccaneers 8-8
Saints 8-8
Panthers 7-9

My favorite statistical stat since the realignment: The last place team from the previous year finishes first place the following season in the NFC South. It was extremely difficult to crunch the numbers in favor of the Falcons, but who am I to argue with such an impressive pattern. Plus, its not like the rest of the NFC South is world beaters. Who knows, maybe Matt Ryan will blow up, and I do like Michael Turner.

NFC West
* Cardinals 10-6
Seahawks 9-7
Rams 3-13
49ers 3-13

Every year people pick the Cardinals to usurp NFC West power over the Seahawks, and I will fall into that trap again this year. The Cards just have too many weapons, especially being helmed by Kurt Warner. Plus the defense isn't that bad either. The Seahawks on the other hand, are dealing with excessive injuries, Mike Holmgren's incoming retirement, and no real running back.

So that makes 7 new playoff teams by my count. Looking forward to Thursday.