The First Quarter

So after four weeks I am more perplexed by the NFL than ever. Without Tom Brady and Peyton Manning (I don't recognize the current Colts quarterback as the true Peyton Manning) the NFL is wide open. No team has truly separated themselves, and when the Chiefs beat the Broncos, Redskins beat the Cowboys, and Jets put up 50 plus points after getting rocked by San Diego the old adage that on any given Sunday any team can beat another has never been more true.

AFC EAST

Happily, I believe the Bills are for real. Pundits love to point out that the Bills' opponents have won four games thus far this season. However, a team that experts love, the Titans, have played three of their four games at home, and their opponents have won an aggregate of three games this season. I'm not saying the Titans are bad, but I'm not sold just yet.

The Bills are for real, not only because they are a pretty good team, but because their schedule dictates that they will be at worst 10-6. The Bills still get to play the Cardinals, 49ers, Chiefs, Jets twice, Dolphins twice, Patriots twice, Chargers, Browns, and Broncos. Considering they only have to go .500 to finish 10-6 they will be tough to keep out of the playoffs, and have a legitimate shot at finishing much much better.

As for the rest of the AFC east, a Wild Card team will come out of the AFC East. The second game between the Jets and Patriots will be huge.

AFC NORTH

This division is definitely still up for grabs. The Steelers have one running back on their roster right now and still have one of the roughest schedules ever. The good news for the Steelers, is though the Ravens are frisky, no other team in the division looks to challenge them. I still have some faith in the Browns, but they need to insert Brady Quinn as quarterback ASAP. The NFL has officially figured out Derrick Anderson. Quinn could be just the shot of adrenaline that the Browns need to get back into contention.

AFC SOUTH

My 10-6 Texans prediction looks pretty bad now, but the Texans have exclusively played on the road. They play exclusively in Houston for the next month and could string some wins together. Andre Johnson, who is killing my fantasy teams, is better than this. The Texans may not reach my 10-6 predicted mark, but they are better than their current record. My Colts prediction is looking pretty solid though. Granted, when Peyton Manning comes back they might get things back together, but by that time things might be too late.

AFC WEST

I feel bad for Lane Kiffin. The Raiders are legitimately a couple of plays away from 3-1. Perhaps the firing will bring some stability to the organization, but it was Ryan's defensive unit that collapsed two weeks in a row in the fourth quarter against the Bills and Chargers, not Kiffin's offense. The Chargers are difficult to figure out. They are much more consistent than I thought they would be, but they have the talent to beat any team. I hate the Broncos, I hate the way they play, or refuse to play defense. That kind of nonsense catches up to teams, and hopefully it will the Broncos.

NFC EAST

Sure I predicted that three teams from the NFC East would make the playoffs, but the one team I thought wouldn't make it because of a Super Bowl hangover is the only undefeated team in the NFC. That stat, however, is a little misleading. The Giants beat a Redskins team that was much different than the team that upended the Cowboys, the Bengals, and the Rams. Nothing exactly to write home about. Its still a long season for the G-Men. The Cowboys should be undefeated. The talent the Cowboys have is borderline ridiculous, and when that talent does not translate to wins, as it did against the Redskins then coaching is to blame. I know Tony Romo has a pass play and a run play to choose from every time he goes under center, but it was inexcusable for the Cowboys to abandon the running game. Especially when their best offensive player is Marion Barber, not Terrell Owens.

NFC NORTH

The big surprise here is the Bears are much better than I thought they would be. Kyle Orton hasn't been that bad, and the Bears defense is still one of the best in the league. The Vikings may have started slow, but I still think they can take the division, especially where the Lions just recently rejoined the league after the firing of Matt Millen (check this hilarious song out http://www.heavy.com/video/58983), and Aaron Rodgers seems like he might be coming back down to earth a little bit.

NFC SOUTH

The NFC South realignment streak of last to first may finally come to an end. The Bucs defense has been revitalized and Brian Griese has been solid. The Falcons have been better than advertised though. By beating the Lions and the Chiefs they have thus far displayed that they are the best of the crappy teams.

NFC WEST

The worst division of all time might get a little better with the return of Deion Branch and eventually Bobby Engram to the Seahawks. The winner in this division might finish 7-9. Explaining to the fans of the team that finishes last in the NFC East, with undoubtedly a better record than the NFC West's division winner, that they are not in the playoffs will be difficult.