I Don't Care About the National League

Yes, I don't care about the league that could possibly go a season with only one 90 win team. This is only by circumstance too because Arizona (89) plays Colorado (87). So one of those two teams will win 90. Some may chalk this up to parity, but, honestly, it's because the NL is awful. Anyway, here is a statistical look into the Junior Circuit's October.

Angels

When looking at the Angels' roster, it's very difficult to find a weakness. They have 2 outstanding starting pitchers and their lineup is a great mix of power and speed. There is very little to say about John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar. They are both in the top 10 in ERA in the AL and are 7th and 15th in the AL in pitching runs created. Needless to say, the front end of the Angels rotation is tough to beat. The rest of the staff, including the bullpen, have given up the 5th fewest runs in the AL.

The Angels offense has scored the 4th most runs in the AL this year but posts the worst OPS of any of the playoff teams. OPS is a great indicator of how effective a team's offense can be. Let's break it down. The Angels post a SLG% of only .419. This means that they don't hit for power as much as the other playoff teams do. However, the Angels kill with timely hitting and speed. They have the second most stolen bases in the AL and the most sacrifice flies. The offense can bring 'em home. And that's all that matters against good pitching.

Defense is the only glaring weakness for the Angels. They have the 5th worst fielding percentage in the AL. However, the Angels are great in close games as they have posted a 24-18 record in 1 run games and have the 6th best OPS when games are close and late.

Red Sox

The Red Sox are the most underachieving team in the American League. They have the best run differential and, consequently, an expected record of 99-60. This could mean two things. The Red Sox find ways to lose or they blow teams out and lose close games. Either way, they have failed to live up to their lofty statistical expectations. Let's try to find out way.

The offense is 3rd in the league in runs scored and 2nd in OPS. They hit for power and get on base extremely well. They have a clutch lineup that posts the 4th best OPS in the AL when it is close and late in games. Actual runs scored do not matter because each team has a different amount of at bats in these situations.

So it isn't the hitting, what about the pitching? Overall, the Sox have the best ERA in the AL. Their starters are 2nd and their bullpen is the best. And they have the second best ERA when the game is close. However, it is interesting to note that the Red Sox ERA independent of fielding (basically without defensive help or luck) is 30 points higher than their ERA. This means that the Red Sox have been 30 ERA points luckier than they should have been. The differential is the highest among playoff teams and is 3rd best out of the four. So maybe the Sox pitching staff isn't as good as it may seem.

Either that or JD Drew is responsible.

Yankees

The 2007 Comeback Kids are on a roll in September, only losing about 10 games this month. More importantly, they have an outside chance of actually winning the East. Even though those pesky wild card shirts have already been printed and sold. The obvious strength of the Yankees is their offense. These guys can hit. They are tops in all major offensive categories. Their only weakness is when the game is close and in the later innings. They are middle of the pack when the game is close with the 7th best OPS in the AL.

The obvious weakness of the Yankees is their pitching. Sure they have a great run differential, but that's mostly due to the fact that they score a ton of runs. The Yanks have given up the most runs of the four playoff teams and post the worst overall ERA. Their starters' ERA is 7th in the AL and their bullpen is 10th. The Yankees' staff posts the 3rd worst ERA when the game is tight. There isn't any statistical magic that I can find to make you Yanks fans feel any better (or worse for that matter). The pitching is by and far the worst of all the playoff teams.

However, I will humor New Yorkers with non-statistical insight. The Yankees rotation is pretty rife with experience. Clemens, Pettite, and Mussina are veterans who have pitched in the postseason before. They know what it takes to win and sometimes its the old battle horses that come out of nowhere and give standout performances in October.

Indians

The Indians are one of the most overachieving teams in the AL. According to their run differential, the Indians should have only won 90 games by now. In fact, they have 94 wins. The Angels and Indians share this trait. This is due to the fact that both teams have excellent records in 1 run games. These teams may not win big, but they win when its close. For the most part, the Indians are pretty balanced and they have no glaring weakness.

If there is any strength for the Indians, then it is their pitching. They have two AL Cy Young candidates in CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. Both are top 10 in ERA and pitching runs created. Sabathia is second to Beckett in fielding independent pitching and leads pitching runs created. Carmona is the league ERA leader right now but has a fielding independent pitching ERA 100 points higher than ERA. That is natural for a ground ball pitcher (Wang also suffers in this stat). Overall, the Indians are 3rd in ERA and 3rd in runs allowed. Their starters post the best ERA in the AL and their bullpen is 5th. They are 6th in ERA when the game is on the line.

The offense has the 4th best OPS in the AL and has the second best OPS in close and late situations. They are also 11-8 in extra innings. These stats show that the Indians are able to win close games. Otherwise, their offense is generally regarded as probably the 5th best in the AL.

Predictions (Or not)

As an Indians fan I can't made any sort of unbiased predictions. Obviously I'm rooting for Cleveland. However, each team has its strengths and weaknesses coming into October. The Red Sox are limping towards the playoffs and can possibly lose the division depending on what happens this weekend. They have a couple of hitters that are question marks such as JD Drew and Manny, who didn't try to play in those crucial Yankees series.

The Yankees really need to step up their pitching and find reliable relievers other than Rivera and Joba. Those two are pretty good, but they have to get the game to them. Joba isn't going to pitch more than 2 innings in any given game. If their starters get knocked out early, then it's going to be a long game. Another question mark is A-Rod. Will he fold under the October pressure as he's done in the past? Or will he continue to carry the Yanks on his back? The Yankees need to ride this September into October. They have played well since the All-Star Break and can't let up now.

The Angels look prime going into the playoffs. And they've played most of September without Vladimir Guerrero. His insertion of the lineup, along with Garrett Anderson, make the Angels lineup dangerous to any pitching staff. Their pitchers are good enough to match up with any lineup and but their bullpen needs to be able to get the ball in Fransisco Rodriguez's hands. But this team has been here before, and they know what it takes.

The Indians are the team with the least amount of playoff experience. This is their biggest weakness. They've been good about putting their nose to the grindstone and head to the stars since mid August, but can they continue to do that when the pressure is on in October? Youth on a team is either a blessing or a curse. They either fold under the pressure or don't know any better and succeed despite it. They are just as capable as the other teams of making a run, but can they hang in there mentally with the big market teams?

Who knows. Tune in and find out.

MLB Topic of the Week: AL Cy Young

I recently read a wire article on the Major League Baseball website discussing the current leaders for the Cy Young award in the AL. It listed Josh Beckett (18-6, 3.27), CC Sabathia (17-7, 3.15), and Chien-Ming Wang (18-6, 3.69) as the top three candidates. Wang?! Are you serious?! I just threw this up to the big market, East Coast bias. Then I settled down and decided to check the stats to see whats up. I'm gonna channel my inner Rob Neyer here, so bear with me.

What qualifies anymore for this award? Is it merely wins? Thats the only way you can explain Wang being in anyone's top 3. He's not in the top 10 in any other major statistic. He's 14th in ERA, 39th in strikeouts, 13th in quality starts, and 11th in quality start percentage. Wang has given up 74 earned runs so far this season. That is 3 less than Sabathia and 8 more than Beckett. However, Wang has pitched only 180 innings this season compared to Sabathia's 220. That means Sabathia has pitched about 6 more games than Wang and has only given up 3 more runs. Compared to Beckett who has pitched as many innings as Wang, Sabathia has given up 11 more runs than him. That comes out to 2 runs per game (assuming 6-7 innings pitched per start) in those extra innings. Mathematically, Sabathia is the best in terms of earned runs given up.

So based on the traditional statistics, the MLB writer puts Wang in Cy Young contention almost solely because he plays for the Yankees, the most prolific run scoring team in the league. Statistically, if all three of these pitchers played for the same team, getting the same run support, Wang would most likely have the worst record.

Well, lets look at some non-traditional statistics to see how good these pitchers are.

Hardball Times has some great statistics that do just that. First is a stat labeled Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP basically calculates ERA based on the things that pitchers can control, such as walks, home runs, etc. Basically it takes good and bad defensive plays out of the equation, and with it the element of luck. Beckett leads the league in this stat and is the only one of the three that has an FIP lower than his ERA. This means, incredibly, that Beckett actually gets hurt by the Red Sox defense, which is one of the best in the AL. Sabathia is 3rd and Wang is 12th if FIP. They are helped out by their defenses. The Yanks defense is actually just behind the Red Sox and the Indians are average. Once again, Wang falls way short of par for the course. And once again, he is helped by being on the Yankees.

Another stat Harball Times uses is Pitching Runs Created. This stat is based on the premise that runs saved are more important than runs scored. Here's a great explanation. All you need to know for purposes of this article is that PRC determines a pitcher's absolute value. Sabathia leads the three and is second in the AL in the statistic. Beckett is 5th and Wang, once again, isn't even close. To be fair, Wang is hurt by this statistic because he isn't a strikeout pitcher, but a more democratic ground ball guy. The stat is pretty fascist and gives more credit to power pitchers who get more Ks. However, the flipside is that it gives more credence to a pitcher's natural ability. Ground ball pitchers have a talent, but they wouldn't be good without their defense. A ground ball is a hit until the fielders put it away. A strikeout is completely a credit to the pitcher. So according to this statistic as well, Wang is only in Cy Young contention because he's on the Yankees, a good defensive team. He's not on the list because of his ability to get guys out.

I'm not saying that Wang shouldn't be in the discussion for the Cy Young. He is consistent and has really been the Yanks' stopper this season. But there are other pitchers out there who should garner more attention. Danny Haren and Kelvim Escobar to name two. They lead the league in ERA respectively. Haren is hurt almost solely by the fact that he plays with an anemic offense. And I don't understand why Escobar isn't talked about more.

Too bad voting is up to writers who look at the traditional stat sheets and can't see the numbers behind the numbers. If you are awake at the end of reading this, or actually found it interesting...thanks. And God help you.