MLB Topic of the Week: AL Cy Young

I recently read a wire article on the Major League Baseball website discussing the current leaders for the Cy Young award in the AL. It listed Josh Beckett (18-6, 3.27), CC Sabathia (17-7, 3.15), and Chien-Ming Wang (18-6, 3.69) as the top three candidates. Wang?! Are you serious?! I just threw this up to the big market, East Coast bias. Then I settled down and decided to check the stats to see whats up. I'm gonna channel my inner Rob Neyer here, so bear with me.

What qualifies anymore for this award? Is it merely wins? Thats the only way you can explain Wang being in anyone's top 3. He's not in the top 10 in any other major statistic. He's 14th in ERA, 39th in strikeouts, 13th in quality starts, and 11th in quality start percentage. Wang has given up 74 earned runs so far this season. That is 3 less than Sabathia and 8 more than Beckett. However, Wang has pitched only 180 innings this season compared to Sabathia's 220. That means Sabathia has pitched about 6 more games than Wang and has only given up 3 more runs. Compared to Beckett who has pitched as many innings as Wang, Sabathia has given up 11 more runs than him. That comes out to 2 runs per game (assuming 6-7 innings pitched per start) in those extra innings. Mathematically, Sabathia is the best in terms of earned runs given up.

So based on the traditional statistics, the MLB writer puts Wang in Cy Young contention almost solely because he plays for the Yankees, the most prolific run scoring team in the league. Statistically, if all three of these pitchers played for the same team, getting the same run support, Wang would most likely have the worst record.

Well, lets look at some non-traditional statistics to see how good these pitchers are.

Hardball Times has some great statistics that do just that. First is a stat labeled Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP basically calculates ERA based on the things that pitchers can control, such as walks, home runs, etc. Basically it takes good and bad defensive plays out of the equation, and with it the element of luck. Beckett leads the league in this stat and is the only one of the three that has an FIP lower than his ERA. This means, incredibly, that Beckett actually gets hurt by the Red Sox defense, which is one of the best in the AL. Sabathia is 3rd and Wang is 12th if FIP. They are helped out by their defenses. The Yanks defense is actually just behind the Red Sox and the Indians are average. Once again, Wang falls way short of par for the course. And once again, he is helped by being on the Yankees.

Another stat Harball Times uses is Pitching Runs Created. This stat is based on the premise that runs saved are more important than runs scored. Here's a great explanation. All you need to know for purposes of this article is that PRC determines a pitcher's absolute value. Sabathia leads the three and is second in the AL in the statistic. Beckett is 5th and Wang, once again, isn't even close. To be fair, Wang is hurt by this statistic because he isn't a strikeout pitcher, but a more democratic ground ball guy. The stat is pretty fascist and gives more credit to power pitchers who get more Ks. However, the flipside is that it gives more credence to a pitcher's natural ability. Ground ball pitchers have a talent, but they wouldn't be good without their defense. A ground ball is a hit until the fielders put it away. A strikeout is completely a credit to the pitcher. So according to this statistic as well, Wang is only in Cy Young contention because he's on the Yankees, a good defensive team. He's not on the list because of his ability to get guys out.

I'm not saying that Wang shouldn't be in the discussion for the Cy Young. He is consistent and has really been the Yanks' stopper this season. But there are other pitchers out there who should garner more attention. Danny Haren and Kelvim Escobar to name two. They lead the league in ERA respectively. Haren is hurt almost solely by the fact that he plays with an anemic offense. And I don't understand why Escobar isn't talked about more.

Too bad voting is up to writers who look at the traditional stat sheets and can't see the numbers behind the numbers. If you are awake at the end of reading this, or actually found it interesting...thanks. And God help you.