Friday, November 23, 2007

The Death of the Middle Class


The free agency season in baseball is in full swing this winter. A-Rod finally signed with the Yankees after astutely deducing that no other team could afford his agent's outrageous demands. What a shocker. Was there any doubt that Rodriguez wouldn't sign with a team from New York? Not really considering the fact that Rodriguez would consume about 40% of the average team's annual payroll.

The Angels seemed to be a good fit initially but the finances inexplicably didn't work out. Apparently Morero would have had to sell his children to pay off the loan he'd have to take out to pay Rodriguez. Does that even make sense? The Angels are perennial contenders in one of the top three biggest viewer (and probably most bandwagon) markets in the country. They sell out regularly and probably made a killing on apparel due to all the bandwagoners in LA that hit the team store in late September. And the still couldn't sign A-Rod.

However, the Angels were able to snag Torii Hunter for $18 million a year for 5 years (yeah, I did that in my head). We can sit here and argue whether or not that deal is fair or not, but the point is everyone knew that Hunter was looking for a deal in a neighborhood that only a few teams could viably offer. This is the dilemma that all smaller market teams like the Twins are going to face indefinitely. Their young, developed talent is going to migrate towards the big market teams when payday inevitably arrives.

This vicious cycle is known in the real world as capitalism. Those who have, have. And those who don't, don't. And to compete with the haves, the little guy has to produce with ingenuity and resourcefulness. The A's, Twins, Indians, Marlins, and Diamondbacks have all succeeded recently due to exceptional scouting, player development, and patience. But how far does that really get them? When did those teams, most notably the Twins, Indians, and A's win it all? Never. I exclude the Marlins and Diamondbacks because their championship teams were bought and summarily disbanded through clearance sales about a week after.

The Twins and A's were always competitive but never good enough to beat the high roller teams in October. Common sense would dictate that this is due to the lack of veteran players on the smaller teams. Veterans still worth their salt demand ridiculous contracts that would theoretically take them into retirement. These are usually long term and fat. Smaller teams would rather divert their resources to player development and long term deals for their home grown talent. This strategy will work for the mid term, but what happens when that talent blossoms and free agency strikes. Those guys go to the Angels, Yankees, Red Sox, and to a lesser extent the Orioles, White Sox, and Rangers (if they love money and losing).

What's even more disturbing is that salaries are becoming inflated once again. Look at Barry Zito's contract. He didn't pitch anywhere near what his contract price is. Now teams like the Twins pay the piper for the Giant's callous spending because Johan Santana is worth about 10x more than Zito. They offered Santana $20 million a year for 4 years and he turned it down. Not a big surprise.

So the Middle Class of baseball is dying. They raise young talent and it is ripped away from them by the big paychecks. It's the spirit of America you say. But it may also spell doom for MLB. If 3 of the 4 playoff teams each year repeat, where is the thrill anymore? Where is that hope that fans of that other playoff team might have? It's gone. Sure their team is on top now, but in 3 years everyone is going to hit free agency and the dream of a Cinderella championship goes with them. And then what? Rebuilding? Yeah, thats that period in between winning seasons when nobody watches their team.

MLB needs to fix this problem and the MLBPA needs to wake up. Sure revenue sharing is great. I mean now teams like the Royals can afford Gil Meche! I'm sure that put abou 0 fans into the seats in Kansas City. Maybe they need to learn from the NFL. NFL games are perpetually sold out. Even in towns like Cleveland, Buffalo, Houston, and San Francisco where the teams have been mediocre at best the last few years. People still come.

Maybe it's due to the fact that America's passion is football. But, it may be due more to the fact that the NFL's salary cap and revenue sharing system allow more teams to be competitive. Every year the NFL puts new teams into January and every year people love it. If baseball could somehow level the playing field, it could get more fans to attend games across the spectrum. I don't see how this escapes the MLB brass. Yankee Stadium can only hold some 40 thousand people. But if you filled half of all other stadiums more regularly you can sell more tickets than if you sold out the Bronx and Fenway combined. Put in other way, parity equals more money.

The grunts of the NFL figured it out. How come you good ol' boys can't?

3 comments:

B-Rad said...

Baseball? Come on.

Rocky Top said...

Do you count the 2003 Florida Marlins as a firesale squad too? The 2006 Cardinals weren't exactly a spending machine, either.

I don't think we're ever going to get the MLBPA to agree to a salary cap, and as long as attendance figures keep going up, they won't have a reason to.

Average at Best said...

The 2003 Marlins are a prime example of what I'm talking about. They are a small market team that puts together a squad of talented youngsters to make a run every now and then. They were fortunate enough to win the whole thing. But how competitive have they been since?

The Cardinals were an anomaly on every front. They won 84 games and had a +10 or so run differential. But they also had big money players like Pujols and Edmonds in addition to the young talent.

My point was there is no longevity to small market teams. They are constantly rebuilding to have that one freak year where they might go all the way. The Marlins and Cardinals didn't even make the playoffs the year after their championships. The Marlins are going to trade Cabrera for a king's ransom and get a new stock of young talent. And maybe in 3 years they'll make the NLCS.

Smaller teams just can't afford these players and if salaries keep inflating, then even the second tier rich teams won't be able to afford more than 1 above average player and the gap between the big and small markets will get wider.