NFL "analysts" pick the NFL division and playoff winners annually on ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and similar media outlets. Not shockingly, most had the following: Pats, Ravens, Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Bears, Saints, Seahawks as the division winners, and teams like the Steelers, Bengals, Jets, Giants, Eagles, and Panthers fighting for the Wild Cards. Granted, some of these are going to be right. No one is catching the Patriots who already have a 2 game lead on the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets in the AFC East, but analysts year after year overlook the NFL schedule itself and how it favors certain teams.
Let's break it down:
Since 2002 when the NFL was realigned with the addition of the Houston Texans there are four seasons to compare records one year to the next: 2002-2003, 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006.
During that time period 12 times has a team gone from DEAD LAST to first place or a Wild Card birth. For those who want to know: 03-04 Jets, 05-06 Jets, 02-03 Chiefs, 03-04 Chargers, 02-03 Cowboys, 04-05 Redskins, 05-06 Eagles, 04-05 Bears, 02-03 Panthers, 03-04 Falcons, 04-05 Bucs, 05-06 Saints.
In fact, the key to winning the NFC South is finishing in last place. Every year the NFC South has been in existence the team that has finished last place has gone on the following year to win the division. Last year's bottom dweller, the Tampa Bay Bucs, look like a pretty good pick to make it five years in a row.
Anyway, this means that on average three teams that finished last place will go on to win their division or make the playoffs. This year's possibilities: Dolphins, Browns, Texans, Raiders, Redskins, Lions, Bucs, and Cardinals. Did you see many of those teams on the pundits predictions? No? Not surprising because they are fools. The record of the last place teams in the young season is 9-7. Meanwhile, the record of the first place teams from last year is 8-8!
I know its early in the season, but the stats simply don't lie. Three of the teams from the above list will be in the playoffs (my bet is Texans, Redskins, and Bucs).
So why is this the case? There are a couple reasons. First, the NFL schedule does its best to be fair, and does so with 14 out of 16 games. However, games 15 and 16 can create a huge advantage for some teams. An example that hits close to home is the 2006 Bills (7-9), compared to the 2006 Jets (10-6). The Bills and Jets played the exact same schedule except two games. For those two games the NFL has teams play a game against the teams that finished in the same place in their respective division the previous season in the same conference. The Bills played the Chargers and Ravens two playoff teams who finished third place the previous year. Meanwhile, the Jets as the fourth place team were given the Browns and Raiders. A genuinely feisty team like the Bills, if they had finished fourth, had a real shot at 9-7, while the Jets would have never been able to beat the Chargers and Ravens and would have finished 8-8. Second, the salary cap puts teams on the top in salary cap jail after a run, and allows the bottom teams to become better once their salary cap is fixed.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I saved my Sporting News prediction magazine as it should be good for a laugh...or maybe this post will be...
Let's break it down:
Since 2002 when the NFL was realigned with the addition of the Houston Texans there are four seasons to compare records one year to the next: 2002-2003, 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006.
During that time period 12 times has a team gone from DEAD LAST to first place or a Wild Card birth. For those who want to know: 03-04 Jets, 05-06 Jets, 02-03 Chiefs, 03-04 Chargers, 02-03 Cowboys, 04-05 Redskins, 05-06 Eagles, 04-05 Bears, 02-03 Panthers, 03-04 Falcons, 04-05 Bucs, 05-06 Saints.
In fact, the key to winning the NFC South is finishing in last place. Every year the NFC South has been in existence the team that has finished last place has gone on the following year to win the division. Last year's bottom dweller, the Tampa Bay Bucs, look like a pretty good pick to make it five years in a row.
Anyway, this means that on average three teams that finished last place will go on to win their division or make the playoffs. This year's possibilities: Dolphins, Browns, Texans, Raiders, Redskins, Lions, Bucs, and Cardinals. Did you see many of those teams on the pundits predictions? No? Not surprising because they are fools. The record of the last place teams in the young season is 9-7. Meanwhile, the record of the first place teams from last year is 8-8!
I know its early in the season, but the stats simply don't lie. Three of the teams from the above list will be in the playoffs (my bet is Texans, Redskins, and Bucs).
So why is this the case? There are a couple reasons. First, the NFL schedule does its best to be fair, and does so with 14 out of 16 games. However, games 15 and 16 can create a huge advantage for some teams. An example that hits close to home is the 2006 Bills (7-9), compared to the 2006 Jets (10-6). The Bills and Jets played the exact same schedule except two games. For those two games the NFL has teams play a game against the teams that finished in the same place in their respective division the previous season in the same conference. The Bills played the Chargers and Ravens two playoff teams who finished third place the previous year. Meanwhile, the Jets as the fourth place team were given the Browns and Raiders. A genuinely feisty team like the Bills, if they had finished fourth, had a real shot at 9-7, while the Jets would have never been able to beat the Chargers and Ravens and would have finished 8-8. Second, the salary cap puts teams on the top in salary cap jail after a run, and allows the bottom teams to become better once their salary cap is fixed.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I saved my Sporting News prediction magazine as it should be good for a laugh...or maybe this post will be...
1 comment:
Good analysis B-Rad.
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